Brazil’s 2026 election is more than another face‑off between Lula and Bolsonarism. October will test whether Bolsonarism can survive beyond Jair Bolsonaro and remain under the Bolsonaro family’s control. It will also expose the left’s dependence on Lula and its unclear succession. Above all, the election will reveal who inherits the political spoils of Brazil after years of crisis and polarization.