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Writer's pictureFrancesco Maffei

The Perpetually Failed State

Eternal Anarchy in the Horn of Africa



Somalia has been widely defined as a “failed state”. It does not have any central political authority, any semblance of economic development, and a myriad of internal and external conflicts such as Ethiopia and Somaliland. The majority of the population has always lived in a warzone, in a nation that has yet to see peace and stability. With rising global temperatures, the continuous alternation of droughts and floods has led to the destruction of plantations, fueling mass migration.

Both regional and global powers, such as Turkey and Egypt, have sought to take advantage of the country’s chaos to pursue their national interests in Africa.

Despite its challenges, Somalia has massive potential owing to its strategic location across the Indian Ocean, Red Sea and, consequently, the Suez Canal. 

The historical context of this nation is key to understanding the instability and conflicts across the Horn of Africa.


Somalia Under Foreign Control

The Portuguese were the first European power to attempt to colonise the region during the XVI° century. However, the alliance between the Sultanate of Agiuran in the south and the Sultanate of Adal in the north successfully pushed the invaders away.

In the second half of the XIX° century, new colonial powers—the United Kingdom, France, and Italy — took an interest in the region, aiming to control ports and commercial routes.

The first contact between Somalis and the British occurred in 1827 when a British ship sank off Somalia’s coastline due to an attack by local soldiers.

However, the British invasion did not begin until 1884, when they replaced the Egyptian Khedive in controlling what is now Somaliland.

France conquered a small portion of the land and established a colony in 1896. In 1977 the colony, meanwhile, turned into an overseas territory and declared its independence as the Republic of Djibouti.

The Italian adventure in the Horn of Africa dates back to November 15, 1869, when catholic missionary Giuseppe Sapeto, assisted by the admiral Guglielmo Acton, purchased Assab Bay on behalf of the Rubattino shipping company. Supported by the UK, which aimed to prevent German penetration in the region, Italy gained control of several coastline cities between 1889 and 1891, such as Uarsceik, Mogadishu, Merca and Brava.

Even though this was not a crucial achievement for the Italian Kingdom, considering also the extension of other European colonial empires, the acquisition can be seen as the starting point for Italy's colonial adventure of the first half of the XX° century. After all, in 1869, the Italian State was too young to compete with secular colonial powers and it was facing structural problems stemming from the process of unification.

At the end of the XIX° century, the colonial situation in Somalia can be summed up as follows: the French-controlled Côte française des Somalis (modern-day Djibouti), the British Somaliland Protectorate (corresponding to the territories held today by the breakaway state of Somaliland), and the Italian-controlled Somalia Italiana (roughly equivalent to the Eastern coast of modern-day Somalia.

Unlike the administrative control exercised over Eritrea, the Italian Kingdom decided not to implement a direct one over Somalia, choosing instead to entrust them to a private company: Compagnia Filonardi. It was a method often employed by other European colonial powers in order not to suddenly subvert the political equilibrium of the region and to establish a long-term penetration into the target population’s customs and social traditions.

This situation was not particularly favourable to Italy, which did not have a real public interest in the region, except of course for the private interest of the Compagnia itself. In contrast, German, French and Britannic companies were controlled indirectly by their respective States, meaning private influence was limited or, in certain cases, completely absent. Furthermore, those companies had more capital to invest in colonial ventures.
The scenario that emerges can be defined as “not too advantageous” to Italy.

Nonetheless, colonisation, both direct and indirect, faced opposition from some fringes of the local population. Between 1900 and 1920 the so-called Anglo-Somali war was fought. It can not be considered a conventional conflict, akin to what European armies were used to fight. More specifically, it was a guerrilla war that clashed with the regular British army and the self-proclaimed State of Dervishi led by Mohammed Abdullah Hassan, also known as “Mad Mullah”. Hostilities ended in 1920 when the Royal Air Force bombed Taleh, the capital city of the State of Dervishi.

Under fascist dictatorship, one of the quadrumviri that marched on Rome on October 28, 1922, Cesare Maria de Vecchi, served as governor of Italian Somalia from 1923 to 1928. British historian Anthony Mockler described him as follows: “In October 1923, de Vecchi arrived in Mogadishu and immediately worked to reorganise a confused system, composed by two protectorates and an almost colony”. In contrast, professor Luigi Goglia asserts that “de Vecchi brought to Africa his terrorist methods typical of Fascism”. Upon his arrival, he aimed to renovate the bureaucratic administration. One of his goals was to unify the various colonies into one central entity: Africa Orientale Italiana (1936).

Italian East Africa, including both Somalia and Abyssinia (now Ethiopia) - 1935
Italian East Africa, including both Somalia and Abyssinia (now Ethiopia) - 1935

The new colony was composed of the former Italian Somalia, Eritrea and the recently conquered Ethiopia. The capital city was Addis Ababa and a viceroy governed it.  By June 10, 1941, the Italian army consisted of about 90 thousand men and about 200 thousand àscari, colonial soldiers. At first, Italians were able to conquer the Sudanese cities of Cassala and Somaliland, which were quickly reoccupied by British forces coming from Egypt and India. The war officially stopped on November 28, 1941, when General Guglielmo Nasi surrendered. Guerrilla operations continued under the leadership of Amedeo Guillet.

Africa Orientale Italiana was formerly administered by the United Kingdom until the end of the war.


Independent Somalia and Civil War

The end of the Second World War initiated the process of independence for the Dark Continent.

In 1950, the newborn UN entrusted Somalia to the Italian Republic in order to facilitate its transition into an independent and democratic State. This was the only example of a fiduciary administration given to a defeated country in WWII.

The first administrative elections were held in 1954, followed by general elections in 1956 and in 1959, which were won by the Youth Somali League.

Somalia became fully independent on July 1, 1960, with the unification of the Italian fiduciary administration of Somalia (formerly Italian Somalia) and the State of Somaliland (formerly British Somalia). The form of government was a semi-presidential Republic.

The first president of independent Somalia was Aaden Abdulla Osman Daar. In 1961, Somalis approved a Constitution through a referendum.

In 1967, new general elections were announced and the winner was Ali Scermarke Abdirascid. The transition between Osman Daar and Scermarke is the first pacific passage of political power between a former president and a newly elected one in the entire history of Africa. Scermarke Abdirascid was killed by one of his guards in 1969. Just a week after his funeral, a military coup took control of the country. General Siad Barré became the new president and declared the birth of the Democratic Republic of Somalia.

General Siad Barré, the socialist President of Somalia
General Siad Barré, the socialist President of Somalia

Article 1 of the Constitution of this new State states that the Democratic Republic of Somalia is a Socialist State under the guidance of the working class.

Article 6 states that every citizen, without distinction between sex, religion, origin and language, is equal in front of the law and has the same rights and duties.

Article 7 states that the Somali Revolutionary Socialist Party is the only political party of the State: the constitution of other parties is expressly forbidden.

Similar to other Socialist dictatorships around the world, Barré’s regime entered a crisis at the end of the 1980s. The government used repression against the population until 1991 when the former dictator was exiled. Siad Barré died in Lagos, Nigeria, on January 2, 1995.

The year 1991 also marks the official beginning of the civil war in Somalia. The conflict can be divided in three main phases: 1986-1991, 1991-2006 and 2006 to today.

The first phase is characterised by continuous riots against Barré’s dictatorship that, as mentioned before, were met with a massive use of violence, not only towards rebels but also with the civilian population that was suspected of sheltering and supporting them. A notable case was the bombing of the city of Hargeisa in 1988, a stronghold of the National Somali Movement.

After the ousting of Siad Barré in 1991, the right-wing party United Somali Congress elected Ali Mahdi Mohamed as President of the Republic. Following this event, the situation in the country degenerated with continuous clashes between revolutionaries and Barré’s loyalists.

Somali warlords attempted to take advantage of this situation. Their most known faction was the United Somali Congress (USC), a movement which led the riots against the regime and that was headed by Ali Mahdi Mohamed and General Mohammed Farah Aidid, leader of the paramilitary branch of the party. In June 1992, he split up from USC, founding the Somali National Alliance (SNA). Other important parties were the Somali Democratic Movement (SDM), led by Abdulkadir Mohamed Aden, Colonel Mohamed Nur Aliyow and Abdi Muse Mayow, the Somali National Front (SNF), composed by the Siad Barré’s loyalists and guided by Mohammed Said Hersi Morgan, while a dissident faction was led by general Omar Haji Masalle, the Somali Patriotic Movement (SPM) by former-Minister of defence Aden Abdullahi Nur Gabyow, who controlled the south region of Jubaland, which united with Aidid’s SNA in 1992. 

The fragmented political landscape of Somalia during the civil war
The fragmented political landscape of Somalia during the civil war

In June 1991, a summit was held in Djibouti among all factions to facilitate reconciliation. Everyone attended except for Mohammed Farah Aidid, with whom a private agreement was later reached. Participants agreed to form a transitional government led by Ali Mahdi Mohamed while General Aidid obtained the Secretary of USC and the Presidency of the Senate. However, in November, President Aidid tried to clear Mogadishu’s airport from Ali Mahdi’s army. The counter-attack that resulted led to a civil war.

On January 23, 1992, the UN declared an embargo over army supplies in the country and authorised Secretary Boutros-Ghali to contact the parties in order to reach a cease-fire. On April 27, 1992, the UN mission UNOSOM I officially started. On December 3, 1992,

The UN Security Council approved a US-guided peace-keeping mission called UNITAF.
Following a failed attempt to create a Transition National Council, the UN redefined its engagement rules in the area, establishing the mission UNOSOM II.

Foreign military intervention continued up to 1995, when 8.000 blue helmets were repatriated.

In the following years, Somali warlords sought to consolidate the gains made during the UN intervention era. In 1996, after the death of General Aidid, the peace process culminated in the Nairobi agreement between President Ali Mahdi, Hussein Farrah Aidid (son of General Aidid) and Ali Atto. In 1997, the Sodere conference in Ethiopia resulted in the formation of a National Security Council composed of 41 members representing every single clan of Somalia.

In August 2000, a new peace conference in Djibouti saw the participation of about 2000 clan leaders. On August 13, a new Parliament and a National Transition Government were established.

Fifteen years of civil war led to a significant lack of authority in some areas of Somalia that was filled by Local Islamic Courts, linked to Al-Qaeda. These courts united to form the Union of Islamic Courts, aiming to impose the Shari’a law in the country.
Among the juvenile movements of LIC, the terrorist organisation Al-Shabab was born, which captured many key cities, including Mogadishu itself.

Facing this new problem, the UN revoked the embargo to let Somalia build its army up. 


A section of Mogadishu in ruins during the Somalian Civil War
A section of Mogadishu in ruins during the Somalian Civil War



The Federal Republic of Somalia

On August 1, 2012, the National Transitional Government (NTG) era ended with the promulgation of a new Constitution: it is the official beginning of the Federal Republic of Somalia. The 2010s saw the war against Islamic fundamentalists as the country attempted to slowly return to normalcy. In 2017, Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, a member of Tayo, a right-wing party founded in 2012, became President of the Republic. At the end of his mandate, in 2021, new elections were not held, leading to renewed clashes among political factions. Finally, on May 15, 2022, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud was elected.

Once the reader is acquainted with the historical context of the country, the analysis can shift to the key issues and critical challenges that Somalia is currently facing or is likely to confront in the coming years.


Somaliland

Declared independent in 1991, after the dissolution of the Democratic Republic of Somalia, Somaliland (officially known as the Republic of Somaliland) is a de facto autonomous State whose territory corresponds to the ancient British Somalia colony.

The international recognition of the State is particularly unique and constitutes an anomaly in the global scenario. Except for Taiwan, no other State or international organisation formally recognizes the existence of the State of Somaliland. However many maintain both diplomatic and commercial presence in Hargeisa, the capital, including the USA, EU, UK, Norway, Ireland, Kenya, Rwanda and Ethiopia. In contrast, the African Union supports the thesis of Somalia's territorial integrity.

As easily understandable, the privileged interlocutor is Ethiopia, which has always seen the tiny State as a way to contrast Somalia and to have access to the sea, through the port of  Berbera.  

Throughout the 1960s and 1970s, Berbera was of strategic importance during the Cold War. Initially, the Somali government under President Siad Barre sought Soviet support, and the Soviets were given access to Berbera. However, following the Somali-Soviet split in the late 1970s, the port became a critical point for Western support, especially with the U.S. military establishing a presence in the area.

The strategic port of Berbera
The strategic port of Berbera

After the civil war, the Port of Berbera was gradually revitalised through international partnerships and investments. Despite the lack of formal international recognition of Somaliland, the port became a vital transit point for goods going to and from Ethiopia, which, being landlocked, relied on Berbera for much of its trade. This has led to increased infrastructure development and the expansion of port facilities over the years. In May 2016, DP World (Dubai Port World - a multinational company operating in the transportation and logistics sector, headquartered in Dubai, United Arab Emirates) signed a $442 million agreement with the government of Somaliland to manage a regional commercial and logistics centre at the Port of Berbera. The project, which is currently being implemented, also includes the establishment of a free trade zone.On March 1, 2018, Ethiopia became one of the main shareholders following an agreement with DP World and the Somaliland Port Authority. DP World holds a 51% stake in the project, Somaliland owns 30%, and Ethiopia holds the remaining 19%. As part of the agreement, the Ethiopian government will invest in infrastructure to develop the Berbera Corridor as a commercial port for the landlocked country, which is one of the fastest-growing nations in the world. There are also plans to build an additional dock at the Port of Berbera, in line with the master plan for Berbera that DP World has begun to implement, adding new equipment to further improve the port's efficiency and productivity.

The three main transport corridors in the Horn of Africa
The three main transport corridors in the Horn of Africa

On January 1, 2024, the Ethiopian government, led by Abiy Ahmed, signed a MoU with Somaliland. According to the agreement between the two parties, Addis Ababa commits to "considering" the recognition of Somaliland in exchange for a 50-year lease of 20 kilometres of coastline on the Red Sea: a seafront that Ethiopia considers its "right" for commercial and military development in the region, to build a base near the Port of Berbera. Other reports have suggested that the deal package might also include the transfer of a stake in Ethiopian Airlines, the Ethiopian flagship carrier and one of the country's most valuable assets in its national economy.


Turkey

The Republic of Turkey has operated in the region for years, through military cooperation, in the healthcare and education sectors, and with other initiatives such as the construction of key infrastructure for Somalia, including the renovation of Aden Adde International Airport, the modernization of the Port of Mogadishu, and the establishment of one of the most modern hospitals in the Horn of Africa, renamed Erdoğan Research and Training Hospital.Turkish port operator Albayrak has obtained a 14-year management concession for the Port of Mogadishu.

In 2017, it even built its largest military base outside the country: Camp Turksom. The military facility, located on a 400-hectare plot of land, costs 50 million dollars and trains hundreds of Somali soldiers every year, supervised by about 200 Turkish military advisors. 

At the end of July 2024, the Turkish Parliament approved a presidential motion for the deployment of armed forces in Somalia for two years, to support security against terrorism and other threats, as part of an economic and defence cooperation agreement between Turkey and Somalia signed in early February 2024.Under the agreement, which is valid for 10 years, Turkey will also be responsible for the development, supply of weapons, equipment and training of the Somali navy, which is currently virtually non-existent. In exchange, it will receive 30% of the resources from Somalia's maritime economic zone.The agreement also allows Ankara, whose navy has already been patrolling the Gulf of Aden for fourteen years, to deploy its warships to defend Somali waters.


Egypt

On August 14, 2024, Egypt and Somalia signed a bilateral defence cooperation protocol. The agreement was signed following a meeting between Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud during a two-day visit to Cairo.In a press conference, the Somali president described the pact as "historic," highlighting it as a testament to a future of joint defence against international terrorism, which Somalia is currently fighting.

Egypt also offered to support a new African Union peacekeeping mission in Somalia, which will replace the current African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) in 2025. This contribution was also announced by the African Union. According to the BBC, the plan involves approximately 5,000 Egyptian soldiers joining the new African Union force at the end of the year, with another 5,000 expected to be deployed separately, according to reports.

Military agreements between Egypt and Somalia could prompt Ethiopia to take precautions against potential Egyptian actions aimed at resolving a situation that has lasted for 13 years: the issue of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).

Egypt has been in disagreement with Ethiopia for years over the construction and management of a large hydroelectric dam by Addis Ababa, with a total storage capacity of 74.5 billion cubic metres at the headwaters of the Nile River.

Cairo is concerned about the impact the dam could have on its population of 106 million people, who rely on the Nile River for nearly all of their freshwater needs.


Somali Piracy

The most notable and dramatic outcome of the Somali civil war and the absence of a strong central authority is the rise of piracy. In the early 1990s, numerous foreign boats had been violating Somalia’s maritime borders overfishing its water and dumping highly toxic and radioactive waste into the sea. Those activities, particularly the first one, depleted a primary food source for the local population, that started supporting and sheltering everyone who took action against them.Initially, before the involvement of militias and businessmen, pirates were primarily concerned with ensuring the respect of national borders, the environment and public health. 

According to a BBC article from 2008, the majority of pirates are between 20 and 35 years and pirate gangs are usually made up of three different types of people: ex-fishermen (considered the brains of the operation because they know the sea well), former militiamen (considered the muscles, having direct experience fighting for various Somali warlords in the past), and the technical experts (often computer geeks who know how to operate the high-tech equipment needed to carry out piracy operations, including satellite phones, GPS and military hardware).

Groups finance themselves by hijacking vessels and then demanding the payment of multi-million dollar ransoms. According to the BBC, they are never seen fighting because the promise of money keeps them united. In a few years, pirates emerged as a new important social class in Somalia thanks to the earnings of the aforementioned activities. According to residents in the Somali region of Puntland, where most of the pirates come from, they live a lavish life. 

It has been reported in the past that wealthy businessmen in Dubai were financing the pirates. But the BBC's Somali Service says these days it is the businessmen asking the pirates for loans. It is a success which has a great attraction for Puntland's youngsters, hoping to have hopes of alternative careers in their war-torn country. Once a pirate makes his fortune, he tends to take on a second and third wife, often very young women from poor nomadic clans, who are renowned for their beauty.

But not everyone is smitten by Somalia's new elite. Piracy has harmed various aspects of local people’s lives. They have made life more expensive for ordinary people because they "pump huge amounts of US dollars" into the local economy which results in fluctuations in the exchange rate. Furthermore, their luxurious lifestyle is widely frowned upon by the general population, which suffers from the consequences of a 30-year conflict. 

The attacks often take place well outside the 12-mile territorial limit of Somalia by gangs operating from mother ships. Modus operandi is quite similar for every operation. 
The majority of them happen during the day, particularly in the first hours of the morning. The target ship is reached by a float of agile vessels, supported by other boats, usually fishing ones, and attacked by one the sides or by the stern in order to force the commander to slow down and favour the hijacking. It happens that pirates use guns to intimidate the crew and avoid any kind of resistance. Once the target ship stops, stairs are used to get onboard. 

The pirates use automatic weapons and/or rocket-propelled grenade launchers, generally Soviet-made. The usual targets are Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) and Product and Chemical tankers. Crews and ships have been held by the pirate gangs for periods ranging from ten days to one case in 2007 of six months. In 2007, it was reported that two crew members were killed while in captivity.

Somali pirates have been operating with impunity since the seized vessel was brought inside the 12-mile territorial limit of Somalia. A notable exception to this is the case of the seized French passenger vessel Le Ponant on April 4, 2008, which requested the intervention of Commandos Marine, French Navy special forces, and the GIGN, the Groupe d'intervention de la Gendarmerie nationale, that seized 6 persons and transported them to Paris in order to try them. 

Different States and Supranational organisations tried to solve this problem, aiming to make the Bāb el-Mandeb route safe for every vessel in observance of the international laws of the sea, above all the UNCLOS, United Nations Convention on the law of the sea. Italian contribution started in 2008 with the deployment of destroyer Luigi Durand de la Penne, followed by frigates Libeccio first and Scirocco then. When in 2009, the EU launched its own security mission, formally known as EU NAVFOR Somalia – Atalanta operation, Italy participated in deploying navy and aircraft. From February 2024, Italy also has the command for the operation, replacing Portugal. 

Those missions sorted the hoped effect. Piracy has been downsized over the years, but the fear reemerged in the first half of 2024, pushed by Yemenite Huthi’s insurrection related to the Israeli–Palestinian crisis. The International Maritime Bureau (IMB), part of the Paris-based International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), reports 79 incidents from January and September 2024, with 111 crew members taken hostage. The same bureau estimates that Somali pirates’ activities cost around 37 billion US dollars to the global economy. 


Hope Amidst the Chaos?

Somalia’s history is a long and painful story of struggle and survival. Decades of colonial rule, internal conflict, and outside interference have shaped a nation that has struggled to build strong institutions or lasting peace. From the collapse of its government in 1991 to the rise of warlords and extremist groups, Somalia has faced constant challenges. Environmental problems, like droughts and floods, have made the situation even worse, forcing people to flee their homes and disrupting the country’s already fragile economy.

Despite all this, Somalia’s story is not just about failure. Its location at the crossroads of major trade routes gives it the potential to play a key role in regional trade and development. The resilience of the Somali people, who have endured decades of hardship, is a sign that the country is not without hope. International efforts, although often inconsistent, have helped in areas like combating piracy and terrorism.

However, lasting change can only come from within. Rebuilding trust among Somalia’s clans and creating a stable government are vital steps toward recovery. At the same time, outside powers must act carefully, supporting Somalia without exploiting its resources or worsening its divisions.

Somalia’s future remains uncertain, but its people continue to fight for a better tomorrow. With patience and sustained effort, both from Somalis and the international community, there is still a chance to break the cycle of conflict and create a country that is stable, united, and ready to move forward.



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