The Agony of Democracy

Conservatism Remade and the Emergence of Reaction, 1992-2024

In the Ashes of Reaganism

The twilight years of the Cold War marked a critical juncture in American political life. The fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 and the rise of the “New World Order,” as heralded by President George H.W. Bush, seemed to usher in a new era of international cooperation and economic stability. Bush's vision was predicated on the idea that the United States, as the world's sole superpower, would lead a global order characterized by peace and prosperity. Yet, for many on the right, this new reality was deeply unsettling. The early 1990s were not only a time of geopolitical transformation but also of significant domestic challenges. The American economy, which had been bolstered by defense spending during the Cold War, faced structural weaknesses that became increasingly apparent as the decade progressed. The early 1990s recession, which saw unemployment rise to 7.8% in June 1992, further exacerbated concerns about the country's economic direction.

These economic anxieties were compounded by a growing sense of social disorder. The 1992 Los Angeles riots, sparked by the acquittal of police officers involved in the beating of Rodney King, highlighted the deep racial and economic divides in American society. Crime rates, which had been steadily rising throughout the 1980s, reached a peak in the early 1990s, with violent crime rates reaching 758.2 incidents per 100,000 people in 1991. This period of turmoil led many conservatives to question the legacy of the Reagan era, which, despite its economic successes, seemed to have left the country with deep-seated social and economic challenges.

Reagan-era reforms, particularly the reduction of government intervention in the economy, had created a fertile ground for the growth of conservative and capitalist activism. Deregulation in industries such as finance, telecommunications, and energy had unleashed significant economic growth during the 1980s, but it also led to increased inequality and economic volatility. The stock market crash of 1987, known as Black Monday, served as a stark reminder of the potential downsides of an unregulated market. Yet, for many conservatives, the answer was not more government intervention but rather a doubling down on free-market principles and a return to traditional values.

This period saw the increasing sophistication of the religious right, which had emerged as a powerful political force during the 1980s. The end of the Fairness Doctrine in 1987, which had required broadcasters to present contrasting viewpoints on controversial issues, allowed conservative media to flourish without the obligation to provide counterarguments. This deregulation of the media landscape led to the rise of conservative talk radio, with figures like Rush Limbaugh reaching millions of listeners and shaping the political discourse. Limbaugh's success was emblematic of a broader shift in the media environment, as conservatives found new platforms to spread their message without the constraints of traditional journalistic norms.

Several key components made up this emerging conservative coalition. The National Review group, led by intellectuals like William F. Buckley Jr., played a pivotal role in shaping the movement’s ideological foundation. Founded in 1955, National Review had long been a leading voice in conservative thought, advocating for a fusion of traditionalist conservatism, free-market economics, and anti-communism. However, the end of the Cold War brought new challenges to this coalition, as the unifying threat of communism disappeared, leading to divisions within the movement.

Neo-conservatives, who had once been unified in their opposition to the Soviet Union, began to fracture in the post-Cold War era as their differences with paleo-conservatives became more apparent. Neoconservatives, who tended to support an interventionist foreign policy and a globalist approach to economic issues, found themselves increasingly at odds with paleo-conservatives, who advocated for a more isolationist foreign policy and a focus on preserving American culture and traditions. This division was most evident in the competition for administrative positions and policy influence, particularly in relation to the Gulf War and the United States' deference to the United Nations. The neoconservative belief in America's role as a global leader clashed with the paleo-conservative skepticism of international institutions and military interventions.

The religious right also gained momentum during this period, bolstered by the growth of theocons—conservative theologians and intellectuals associated with publications like First Things. Founded in 1990 by Richard John Neuhaus, a former Lutheran pastor who converted to Catholicism, First Things became a leading voice for the integration of religious values into public life. The theoconservative movement, or "theocons," argued that America's moral and cultural decline could only be reversed through a return to Judeo-Christian values and the reassertion of religious influence in politics. This movement found a receptive audience among conservative Christians, who were increasingly alarmed by what they saw as the erosion of traditional values in American society.

Paleo-conservatives, who had long been skeptical of neoconservative globalism, found themselves increasingly at odds with the mainstream conservative movement. Figures like Sam Francis and Pat Buchanan, who famously coined the term “Culture War” during the 1992 Republican National Convention, represented a growing faction within the party that prioritized cultural and social issues over traditional neoconservative priorities. Buchanan’s fiery speech at the convention, in which he declared that America was in the midst of a “religious war” for the soul of the nation, resonated with many conservatives who felt alienated by the cultural changes of the 1960s and 1970s. This focus on cultural issues, particularly opposition to abortion, gay rights, and affirmative action, became a defining feature of the paleo-conservative wing of the movement.

The media landscape also began to shift in favor of conservatism. Conservative talk radio, spearheaded by figures like Rush Limbaugh, and later Glenn Beck, who revived interest in the writings of Cleon Skousen, became influential platforms for spreading conservative ideas. By 1992, Limbaugh's radio show was being broadcast on more than 600 radio stations, reaching an estimated 20 million listeners each week. The success of conservative talk radio demonstrated the appetite among Americans for an alternative to the mainstream media, which many conservatives believed was biased against their views.

The rise of conservative television, particularly with the advent of Fox News in 1996 and Sinclair Broadcasting’s expansion, further amplified these voices, creating a media ecosystem that would become central to the conservative movement’s power. Fox News, founded by media mogul Rupert Murdoch and former Republican political consultant Roger Ailes, quickly became the most-watched cable news network in the United States, surpassing CNN and MSNBC. Fox's blend of news coverage and opinion programming, which often featured conservative commentators and pundits, helped to solidify the network's position as the go-to source for conservative viewers. By the mid-2000s, Fox News had become a kingmaker in Republican politics, with its hosts and commentators wielding significant influence over the party's base.

In Congress, a new right-wing coalition began to emerge, synthesizing the populism of Pat Buchanan with the anti-establishment rhetoric of Ross Perot. Perot, a billionaire businessman who ran for president as an independent in 1992 and 1996, tapped into widespread frustration with the political establishment, particularly on issues like the federal deficit and trade. Perot's success in the 1992 election, where he garnered nearly 19% of the popular vote, demonstrated the appeal of a populist, anti-establishment message. This new right was characterized by a deep pessimism and a politics of cultural despair, reminiscent of the Weimar Republic, as noted by historian Richard J. Evans. The sense of decline and the belief that America was losing its way became central themes in the rhetoric of this new conservative coalition, setting the stage for the conservative resurgence that would come to define the next two decades of American politics.

The Movement Triumphant

The 2000 election and the subsequent events of 9/11 marked the beginning of a triumphant era for the conservative movement. The contested election, which saw George W. Bush win the presidency despite losing the popular vote, was a significant victory for the Republican Party, but it also exposed deep divisions within the country. Bush's presidency would be defined by the attacks of September 11th, which profoundly reshaped American politics and society. The attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon galvanized the right, leading to a synthesis of neoconservative globalism with paleoconservative nationalism. This new blend of conservative thought was marked by an interventionist foreign policy, often carried out unilaterally and in defiance of international law, particularly in the cases of Iraq and Afghanistan.

The decision to invade Iraq in 2003, based on the belief that Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction, was a defining moment for the conservative movement. The war, which was justified on both security and moral grounds, was seen by many neoconservatives as a necessary step to spread democracy and freedom in the Middle East. However, the invasion and subsequent occupation of Iraq proved to be far more complex and costly than anticipated. By the end of Bush's second term, over 4,000 American soldiers had been killed in Iraq, and the war had cost the United States more than $2 trillion. The failure to find weapons of mass destruction, combined with the growing insurgency and sectarian violence in Iraq, led to increasing skepticism about the neoconservative agenda, both within the conservative movement and among the broader public.

Although paleoconservatives were increasingly sidelined in the intellectual sphere and within the apparatus of the Republican Party, they never fully disappeared from the base. The grassroots support for a more nationalist and isolationist foreign policy persisted, even as the party’s leadership embraced a more globalist approach. This tension between the grassroots and the establishment would become more pronounced in the years to come, as the failures of the Iraq War and the broader War on Terror led to a reevaluation of America's role in the world.

The conservative media, which had grown substantially during the 1990s, played a crucial role in supporting this new direction. Fox News, in particular, became a powerful advocate for the Bush administration's policies, often framing the War on Terror as a clash of civilizations between the West and radical Islam. The network's prime-time lineup, featuring hosts like Bill O'Reilly and Sean Hannity, regularly criticized the mainstream media for what they saw as biased and unpatriotic coverage of the war. This framing helped to solidify support for the war among the conservative base, even as public opinion began to turn against the conflict in the mid-2000s.

The religious right, too, remained a powerful force, advocating for a synthesis of religious and political conservatism that would come to define the George W. Bush administration. Bush, who described himself as a "born-again" Christian, enjoyed strong support from evangelical voters, who made up a significant portion of his base. The religious right's influence was evident in the administration's policies on issues like abortion, stem cell research, and same-sex marriage. Bush's support for a federal ban on partial-birth abortion and his push for a constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage were seen as key victories for the religious right, even as these issues remained deeply divisive within American society.

The conservative legal movement, which had been growing in influence since the Reagan era, also found new opportunities to shape the judiciary during this time. Bush's appointments of conservative judges to the federal bench, including Chief Justice John Roberts and Associate Justice Samuel Alito, were seen as significant victories for the conservative legal movement. These appointments helped to solidify a conservative majority on the Supreme Court, which would go on to issue landmark rulings on issues like gun rights, campaign finance, and religious liberty. The conservative legal movement's influence would continue to grow in the years to come, culminating in the confirmation of three Supreme Court justices during the Trump administration.

Together, these components created a powerful conservative coalition that dominated American politics in the early 21st century. However, the seeds of division that had been sown in the post-Cold War era would eventually come to the fore, leading to a fracturing of the movement in the years to come.

The End of Conservatism?

The failure of the George W. Bush administration to manage the economy, particularly in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, led to a profound crisis within the conservative movement. The financial crisis, which was triggered by the collapse of the housing market and the subsequent failure of major financial institutions, led to the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. By the end of 2009, the unemployment rate had soared to 10%, and the economy had contracted by 2.5%. The crisis shattered the conservative belief in the infallibility of free markets and left many Americans questioning the principles of deregulation and limited government that had been central to the movement since the Reagan era.

The Tea Party movement, which emerged as a reaction to the Obama administration’s policies, represented a radicalization of the conservative base, particularly among the petite bourgeoisie who felt increasingly alienated by the political establishment. The Tea Party, which began as a grassroots protest against the Obama administration's stimulus package and the Affordable Care Act, quickly grew into a powerful political force, organizing rallies and influencing Republican primaries across the country. By 2010, the Tea Party had helped to elect a wave of conservative candidates to Congress, many of whom were committed to reducing the size of government and opposing any form of tax increases.

This new wave of conservatism was characterized by a deep distrust of national moderation, as embodied by figures like John McCain and Mitt Romney, who were seen as too willing to compromise with Democrats. McCain, the Republican nominee in 2008, had long been viewed with suspicion by the conservative base for his willingness to work with Democrats on issues like campaign finance reform and immigration. Romney, who won the Republican nomination in 2012, faced similar challenges, particularly due to his past support for a healthcare reform law in Massachusetts that was seen as a precursor to the Affordable Care Act. Both candidates struggled to unite the conservative base, and their defeats in the 2008 and 2012 elections were seen by many as evidence that the party needed to move in a more conservative direction.

Instead, the movement gravitated towards more radical figures within Congress, such as Mitch McConnell, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio, who were willing to challenge the status quo. Cruz, who was elected to the Senate in 2012 with the backing of the Tea Party, quickly established himself as a leading voice for the conservative movement, using his position to push for a government shutdown in 2013 over funding for the Affordable Care Act. Rubio, who was also elected to the Senate in 2010 with Tea Party support, initially positioned himself as a bridge between the establishment and the conservative base, but he later embraced a more hardline stance on issues like immigration in response to pressure from the right.

Despite these internal conflicts, the core components of the conservative movement—such as the National Review group, neoconservatives, conservative media, the conservative legal movement, and the religious right—remained influential. However, their influence was increasingly contested by the more radical elements within the party, leading to a growing sense of fragmentation and uncertainty about the future of conservatism. The rise of figures like Donald Trump, who defied traditional conservative orthodoxy on issues like trade and foreign policy, further complicated the movement's trajectory, setting the stage for a major realignment within the Republican Party.

The Meaning of Trump

The rise of Donald Trump in the 2016 election marked a dramatic shift in the trajectory of the conservative movement. In the wake of the War on Terror and declining public interest in foreign affairs, many Americans were disillusioned with the traditional neoconservative agenda. The disappointing performance of the Obama administration on economic issues, particularly the slow recovery from the Great Recession, only added to this discontent, paving the way for a populist outsider to seize the Republican nomination. Trump’s message of economic nationalism, coupled with his promise to "drain the swamp" in Washington, resonated with a broad swath of the electorate, particularly among white working-class voters who felt left behind by globalization and technological change.

Trump’s success was built on a coalition that included many of the traditional elements of conservatism, but with significant modifications. Conservative media, which had long been a pillar of the movement, played a crucial role in promoting Trump’s candidacy. Fox News, which had become the most-watched cable news network by the mid-2000s, provided extensive coverage of Trump's campaign, often giving him more airtime than his Republican rivals. The network's prime-time hosts, including Sean Hannity and Tucker Carlson, were vocal supporters of Trump's candidacy, helping to rally the conservative base behind him.

The religious right, particularly among growing evangelical communities, also rallied behind Trump, despite his unconventional personal life and rhetoric. In 2016, exit polls showed that 81% of white evangelical voters supported Trump, despite concerns about his past behavior and lack of religious commitment. For many evangelical voters, Trump's promise to appoint conservative justices to the Supreme Court and his opposition to abortion were more important than his personal shortcomings. Trump's presidency would ultimately deliver on these promises, with the appointment of three conservative justices to the Supreme Court, including Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett, who have since played pivotal roles in decisions on issues like abortion, religious liberty, and gun rights.

Paleo-conservatism, which had been marginalized during the Bush years, found new relevance in Trump’s America-first rhetoric. At the same time, neoconservatives, who had previously dominated Republican foreign policy, were divided over Trump’s candidacy, with some joining his administration while others remained critical. Figures like John Bolton, who served as Trump's National Security Advisor, represented the neoconservative wing of the party that remained committed to a robust, interventionist foreign policy. However, Trump's skepticism of military interventions and his calls to withdraw U.S. troops from conflict zones like Syria and Afghanistan put him at odds with many traditional neoconservatives.

A significant intellectual shift within conservatism also took place during this period, particularly among the so-called “West Coast Straussians.” Associated with the Claremont Review of Books and institutions like Hillsdale College, this group, influenced by the ideas of Harry Jaffa, sought to reclaim a forgotten strain of American conservatism that emphasized the moral and philosophical foundations of the American republic. The West Coast Straussians argued that the United States was founded on a set of universal principles derived from the natural law, which were under threat from modern liberalism. This intellectual movement gained new prominence during the Trump era, particularly with the publication of Michael Anton’s 2016 essay, “The Flight 93 Election,” which framed the 2016 election as a last-ditch effort to save the republic from disaster.

This divide became more apparent after the 2012 election, as noted by Paul Gottfried in Chronicles. Figures like Anton epitomized this new strain of conservatism that saw Trump’s election as a necessary, albeit risky, intervention to prevent the United States from slipping into irreversible decline. Anton's argument resonated with many conservatives who were disillusioned with the Republican establishment and believed that only a radical change in direction could save the country.

The rise of Catholic conservatism, which had long been a significant but often overlooked element of the conservative movement, also became more prominent during the Trump era. Catholic intellectuals and activists played a key role in shaping the Trump administration's policies on issues like religious liberty, abortion, and judicial appointments. The conservative legal movement, which had been laying the groundwork for decades, found new opportunities to shape the judiciary, particularly with the appointment of Supreme Court justices who shared a vision of constitutionalism that diverged from the originalism championed by figures like Antonin Scalia. Adrian Vermeule, a prominent Catholic legal scholar, proposed a new approach to constitutional interpretation known as "common good constitutionalism," which sought to move beyond the rigid constraints of originalism and emphasize the promotion of the common good as a guiding principle for judicial decision-making.

The role of capitalist lobbying, particularly by industries like oil, gas, and big tech, also took on new dimensions during the Trump presidency. While traditional industries like energy continued to support the Republican Party, the rise of reactionary big tech figures like Peter Thiel signaled a new alignment between technology and conservative politics. Thiel, a billionaire investor and co-founder of PayPal, became one of Trump's most prominent supporters in Silicon Valley, advocating for a nationalist approach to technology policy and supporting candidates who aligned with his vision of a more restrained and targeted government intervention in the economy.

The alt-right and alt-lite movements, which emerged during the Obama years and gained prominence during Trump's campaign, represented a radicalization of online conservatism. Platforms like 4chan and Reddit became breeding grounds for a new form of internet-based activism that combined elements of traditional conservatism with more extreme and often nihilistic ideologies. While the alt-right's influence waned after the 2017 Charlottesville rally and subsequent crackdown by social media platforms, the broader influence of online radicalism on conservative politics remained significant, particularly in shaping the discourse around issues like immigration, race, and identity.

National Conservatives, a new faction within the movement, sought to blend traditional conservative principles with a more populist and nationalist approach. Figures like Josh Hawley, Blake Masters, and JD Vance became leading voices for this new conservatism, advocating for policies that prioritized the interests of American workers and communities over global corporations and international institutions. The National Conservative Conference, which brought together intellectuals, activists, and policymakers who shared this vision, became a key forum for debating the future of the conservative movement in the post-Trump era.

In conclusion, the trajectory of American conservatism from the end of the Cold War to the rise of Donald Trump reflects a complex and often contentious evolution. What began as a response to the challenges of the post-Cold War world has developed into a multifaceted movement that encompasses a wide range of ideologies and interests. From the ashes of Reaganism to the triumph of the Bush years, the conservative movement has continually adapted to new challenges and opportunities. However, the rise of Trump has exposed deep divisions within the movement, raising questions about its future direction and its ability to navigate the increasingly polarized landscape of American politics. As conservatism continues to evolve, it remains to be seen whether the movement can reconcile its diverse factions and articulate a coherent vision for the future, or whether it will fragment further in the face of new challenges and shifting political realities.