Brief | Gabon’s New Era: Same Script, Different Cast?
- Emanuele Luchesini
- 3 days ago
- 5 min read
Updated: 2 days ago
A military ruler wins a crushing majority in a disputed election. But is Gabon truly turning a page, or simply rewriting the same story?
In the early hours of April 13th, the result most people expected—and some feared—was made official. General Brice Oligui Nguema, the man who led Gabon’s 2023 coup, won the country’s presidential election with a commanding 90% of the vote. His nearest challenger, former prime minister Alain-Claude Bilie-By-Nze, secured barely 3%.
The landslide was not entirely a surprise, in fact, since deposing Ali Bongo Ondimba in a military takeover less than two years ago, Nguema has moved swiftly to consolidate power. Though he originally styled himself as a transitional leader, his campaign left little doubt about his long-term ambitions but still, for many Gabonese, the election offered a glimmer of something rare: the possibility of real change in a country ruled for over half a century by the same political dynasty.
That dynasty began in 1967, when Omar Bongo took power and held it—remarkably—for 42 years. Upon his death in 2009, his son Ali succeeded him, extending the family’s grip on power through a blend of elite patronage, oil revenues, and contested elections. But by August 2023, public frustration was boiling over, when Ali Bongo claimed another term after a deeply flawed vote. The military stepped in and within hours, tanks were in the streets of Libreville and Bongo was under house arrest. The general in charge of the elite Republican Guard, Brice Oligui Nguema, emerged as the new face of authority.
Nguema quickly promised reform, as a matter of fact in his first speech as interim president, he denounced corruption, vowed to restore institutions, and pledged a break with the past. His government introduced a new constitution, reducing the presidency to two seven-year terms and, crucially, allowing military officials to run for office, making it a convenient tweak that paved the way for Nguema’s candidacy.
The General’s Campaign
By early 2024, it was clear Nguema intended to stay, with a slick and carefully managed campaign. Slogans were catchy—“C’BON,” a pun on his initials and the French for “c’est bon,” adorned billboards and T-shirts nationwide. His platform promised sweeping investment in infrastructure, better public services, and a crackdown on foreign multinationals profiting from Gabon’s natural wealth
In fact Gabon contains vast oil reserves, natural gas and tropical timber, making it, at least on paper, one of the richest countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Even though the GDP per capita is set to be around $16,000, the wealth is poorly distributed across the country, with nearly one in three citizens on the verge of poverty, with high youth unemployment and difficult access to education and healthcare outside of urban centers.
Nguema positioned himself as a pragmatic moderniser: not a populist, but a problem-solver. He promised job creation through public works, new housing, and an ambitious airport project, also vowing to bring home Gabonese talent from abroad and to rebuild state institutions undermined by decades of mismanagement. He also distanced himself from the Bongo legacy, despite once being part of its inner circle, with a clear message—this would be a new Gabon, not simply a different shade of the old one.
An Empty Contest
Despite the message being widely supported across the country, especially in rural areas, the election itself raised serious concerns of transparency. Having the state media solely focused on Nguema’s campaign and the opposition parties severely fragmented and underfunded made the playing field anything but level.
Alain-Claude Bilie-By-Nze, the main opponent of the general in the elections, campaigned on a platform of economic diversification and reduced French influence–a quite popular stance in Francophone Africa.
Bilie-By-Nze also promised a turn away from oil dependency and greater independence from foreign investors, but he struggled to gain traction, due to his association with the Bongo regime undermining his message, and his campaign never caught fire.
Most other candidates were symbolic at best, and in the end Nguema’s victory was overwhelming, but hardly a ringing endorsement of democratic renewal.
France and the Region
Curiously Nguema shares strong ties to France, which set him apart from other military rulers in the region, especially in the Sahel, where military juntas have seized power and adopted anti-French positions, gathering support from alternative players such as Russia.
For the French government, Nguema offers a degree of stability and access, but for Gabon, the benefits are less clear. While foreign investment may continue to flow, many Gabonese—particularly younger voters—question the wisdom of maintaining close ties with a former colonial power, therefore balancing these pressures will require diplomatic finesse.
State Capitalism with Military Overtones
What Nguema does with his mandate will define his legacy. The newly elected president’s ambitions revolve around a greater state involvement in the economy, a clampdown on corruption and a push for job creation. He wants to nationalize national strategic sectors and renegotiate deals with foreign firms that could boost state revenues but risking to scare off private investments.
Nevertheless civil society organisations remain sceptical, as Nguema is accused of using public funds to bankroll his campaign and his anti-corruption pledges are built on shaky promises in a system still dominated by military and political elites.
There are also worries that, despite the trappings of civilian government, real power still resides with the armed forces.
A Familiar Transition
The deeper question, however, is one of legitimacy. Nguema’s rule began with tanks on the streets and has now been endorsed by an election with Soviet-style margins. But does that make it legitimate? The answer depends on what comes next.
If Nguema governs transparently, respects the new term limits, and begins to address the social and economic inequalities that fuelled public anger in the first place, his presidency could mark a genuine turning point. But if the institutions he oversees become tools for personal power—as they were under the Bongos—then Gabon risks repeating its old cycle under new leadership.
The general seems aware of the expectations, given that in his victory speech he avoided triumphalism, speaking instead of “renewal” and “responsibility.” These are words that suggest restraint, even humility. But words, in Gabonese politics, have rarely matched deeds.
For now, Gabon has chosen its path. Whether it leads to something new—or back to something all too familiar—will depend not on how loudly change is promised, but on how quietly it is delivered.
Bibliography:
BBC, "Gabon: President Bongo’s Legacy and the Country’s Political Crisis," BBC News, April 12, 2025. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-66671044
BBC, "Gabon Coup: Army Vows Transition After Ousting President Bongo," BBC News, April 13, 2025. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp31kxg35dro
The New York Times, "Gabon Presidential Election Raises Hopes and Fears," The New York Times, April 12, 2025.https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/12/world/africa/gabon-presidential-election.html?searchResultPosition=2
Al Jazeera, "Will Elections in Gabon Lead to Change?" Al Jazeera, April 13, 2025. https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2025/4/13/will-elections-in-gabon-lead-to-change